Obama and Afghanistan

It would be "unwise"
for Obama to keep Karzai as president

Dr. Haroon Amirzada
An Afghanistani British Political Writer and Former Lecturer at Kabul University

A private Afghan newspaper has said it would be "unwise" if the new US leadership continued supporting President Hamed Karzai as a legacy of George Bush. Arman-e Melli said Karzai's immediate dismissal would benefit the USA as well as the Afghan people. The following is the text of the article by Harun Amirzada entitled: "Obama will begin changes in Afghanistan by dismissing Karzai", published by the newspaper on 19 November; original subheadings retained:
In order to deceive the people of America and the international community, over the past seven years, US President George Bush has continued to speak of Afghanistan as a success story. He has introduced Hamed Karzai, Afghanistan's president, as a talented personality, competent politician who is popular among the people of Afghanistan.
The Bush administration even praised him with honorary and appreciative medals and nominated him for the Noble Peace Prize. It is interesting that Bush used to say he wished Iraq had a strong and successful leader like Karzai (but now the West says Iraq will be used as a model to save Afghanistan).
This was all in spite of the fact that Karzai had no popularity and enjoyed no support among the people inside Afghanistan. He was instead known as an incompetent leader.
For the past seven years, he has ruled Afghanistan as the head of a tribe - not as a civilized leader and president - under the disguise of democracy and with the support of George Bush.
The presence of Karzai's trembling and corrupt government - a government that is teetering on the brink of collapse by Taleban terrorism inspired by the British - is an inauspicious legacy of the Bush administration.

Obama and the vow for change in Afghanistan
Obama promised during his electoral campaign that Afghanistan will be on top of his foreign policy instead of Iraq. In addition, he believes the reason behind the deterioration of the situation in Afghanistan has roots in the incompetent and weak leadership in the country. He has described Hamed Karzai as a weak president who does not get out of his bunker to govern effectively, but Karzai strongly rejected the claims describing it as an electoral campaign [Dari: Tab wa tab].

Sultan Ahmad Bahin, a spokesman for Afghanistan's Foreign Affairs Ministry, said [in reaction to Obama's comments]: It is a part of an electoral campaign. Candidates usually speak about some issues during the electoral campaigns, but when they come to power, they do not act upon what they say. Source: BBC [As published]
But the electoral campaigns have now practically ended and it is the time for change in policies.
If Obama does not really act upon his promises, Mr Karzai will undoubtedly remain on top of the government as an inheritor of the Bush administration and his term in office will be extended. But if Obama remains committed to his promises, we will undoubtedly witness the dismissal of Karzai and his team.

That is why Karzai is worried about Obama's election and his policies towards Afghanistan. During his recent visit to America, he said: We should not start a mutual blame game at the international level and in Afghanistan. Americans, British and others should not blame Afghanistan for their own failures and Afghanistan, too, should not blame them for its failures.

Interestingly, Mr Karzai acknowledged that he should have done a million times better. Karzai also confirmed Obama's criticisms but stressed that the situation should not be described as an urgent crisis. (BBC) [As published]

But the main question is why should Obama dismiss Karzai before doing anything else to successfully put his policies into practice? Can he not use Karzai to implement his policies in Afghanistan?
The fact is that Afghanistan needs fundamental changes which should be gradually introduced wisely and realistically .

There is no doubt that only committed and competent - not incompetent - individuals can bring change. In addition, Karzai's team does not favour as much change as society needs. They will spare no effort to block changes.

Karzai's immediate dismissal would be in favour of the people of Afghanistan and would also be in favour of America.
Otherwise, I think it would be unwise if the new US leadership continued to support George Bush's survivors and inheritors in Afghanistan.

Mr Obama and his aides might have reached the conclusion that they should not let the regime [Karzai's government] continue to rule over the poor and oppressed people of Afghanistan at the cost of the blood of their sons and the money paid by American taxpayers.

Old faces in disguise of change
But it is not only Karzai who has wasted the precious time of the people of Afghanistan and the international community for the past seven years. There are many individuals within Karzai's government who have tried to prevent changes, stability and national solidarity in Afghanistan in the past seven years.
[Zalmay] Khalilzad was George Bush's special representative for Afghan affairs in the past few years.
He misled his bosses in Washington about the existing facts in Afghanistan as the White House was engaged in the Iraq war.

The majority of the problems Afghanistan is faced with today have roots in Khalilzad's games.
It seems Mr Khalilzad and his allies including Ali Ahmad Jalali, [Ashraf] Ghani Ahmadzai and some others, who do not have good background from the time they ruled as inheritors of the Bush administration in Afghanistan, are trying to return to Afghanistan's politics under the disguise of Obama's Change plan.

One of the failed experiences of the Bush administration in Afghanistan is the fact that Washington very much invested in one or a few unpopular individuals and considered them to be representative of one or two tribes, instead of investing in institution-building and state-building projects to attract the support of the people of Afghanistan.

It would be logical to begin change from the presidential palace as soon as possible and continue clearing Afghanistan's departments of corrupt, autocratic, discriminatory and wealth-seeking elements.
The change should also include settling accounts with criminals, smugglers, warlords, opium lords and violators of human rights.

Legal approaches for Karzai's dismissal
Karzai failed during the Bonn Conference with just two votes in his favour and 11 against him, but was still imposed as president by Bush during the 2004 elections. He then became known as head of the interim and transitional governments and as the elected president in the past seven years.

According to the constitution, Karzai's term in office as president ends in 2009. He once said: Now I will not leave it [the government]. He is therefore trying to postpone the elections giving insecurity as an excuse and to continue to serve as president for life supported by Bush yesterday and supported by Obama today.

A recent speech by Hamed Karzai, who, as he himself said, has the experience of tricks and games from the past seven years, shows that he is trying to use his [play] cards to persuade [Dari: Dil Asa kardan] the new White House leadership to find a place in Obama's Change policy.
Karzai might launch some games to oppose his dismissal:

1. Karzai might introduce himself as Afghanistan's saviour and a national personality - something all of Afghanistan's leaders have done in the last days of their leadership.

2. He may enter the game with tribal motives.

3. He will ask Mullah Omar, Golboddin Hekmatyar and the Taleban for help. As he once said he wished the Taleban were his army instead of western troops, national army and his corrupt police.

If Karzai does not voluntarily agree to be dismissed, there are at least five legal channels to dismiss him.

1. Pressing by the international community is the easiest way to remove Karzai. The West has brought him to power. They can easily remove him.
2. According to the constitution, a Loya Jerga can be summoned to impeach Karzai.

3. Nationwide demonstrations and protests can force Karzai to resign.

4. Sincere ministers, who favour change in the country, can put pressure on Karzai. Or, they can resign in protest and force him to resign.

Karzai's possible successors
Some people might think that the dismissal of Hamed Karzai and his cabinet will lead to a power vacuum and the situation will grow tense. It can happen under any regime, but not with Karzai's regime, it will not happen for the following two reasons:

First, Karzai has no power in the country. As Obama said, his power does not go beyond the presidential palace. The dismissal of someone who has no power cannot lead to a power vacuum.
Second, there are at least three options to find a replacement for his government:
First, according to the constitution, Karzai's first deputy can temporarily take over power.

The acting president will first of all form his cabinet to take care of government-related activities and second prepare the ground for democratic and independent presidential elections with the help of the international community.
Second, Karzai and all his cabinet ministers including his two deputies should, according to the constitution, transfer power to the National Assembly.

The National Assembly will lead the country and hold presidential elections.
Third, the National Assembly should call for an urgent meeting of the Loya Jerga to elect the head of an interim administration. The elected head of the interim administration will work to conduct free and democratic elections in at least six months' time and elect his interim cabinet to take care of routine affairs and relations with the international community.

Thus, Karzai's government can transfer power to an interim government without any war, coup or skirmish.
The appointment of a competent and respected president and the creation of a lawful government through the free and democratic determination of the people will not only rid Afghanistan of the crisis of legitimacy, but will also promote opportunities for change in all fields including the war on terror and in efforts to create a healthy leadership with the help of the international community.

Otherwise, the war on terror will not reach anywhere and severe poverty and disasters cannot be eliminated under the shadow of Karzai's government.
Instead, Karzai's government will hand the people of Afghanistan over to the Taleban through deals with the Taleban and Pakistan with the mediation of Britain.

Creation of an evaluation committee
One of the most important responsibilities of the future leadership of Afghanistan will be to launch a serious campaign against the inauspicious legacy of Karzai's government. One of the first things the future leadership should do could be the establishment of an evaluation committee (fact-finding committee) [brackets as published] to investigate the looting of public property, waste of international aid and prosecution of the political, economic and opium mafias.

With this, the new leadership would not only be able to clear the country of corrupt individuals, but would also bring to justice those who have committed crimes and looted public property.
The new government should start doing so from those ministers and senior leaders who have been accused [of being involved in different crimes]

Source: Arman-e Melli, Kabul, in Dari 19 Nov 08, p 2